Champions League Preview

It's February and the Champions League is back. I can't wait for the round of 16 to begin.

There is no easing into it as we have a couple of premiere matchups on Tuesday 18, more commonly known as tomorrow. Liverpool will take on Atlético Madrid at the Wanda Metropolitano and PSG will head to Germany to face Borussia Dortmund.

For this round of 16, Uefa schedules two weeks for the first leg, which gives us the opportunity to really savor the competition without missing too many matches because they are being played at the same time.

We'll be doing previews the day before every match and reviews the day after, today we'll focus on the two matches that were mentioned above and without any further a due let's begin.

Atlético Madrid x Liverpool

Introduction:

It's interesting to think that the first place team in this matchup actually was the one that played it's final group stage match with the risk of not qualifying. Liverpool couldn't lose against Salzburg away from home or they'd be eliminated and Atlético Madrid had a pretty easy qualification especially after Leverkusen lost at home against Lokomotiv Moscow.

It's important to point this out because for everyone that follows the Champions League, one thing always becomes clear. The group stage is more irrelevant than important to judge how a team will do in the latter stages of the competition.

Liverpool finished second in their group and lost all three matches away from Anfield last season, and they won the competition. Real Madrid also won it after finishing second the year before.

Barcelona throughout all their recent struggles have always been able to comfortably qualify as the group leader and it hasn't amounted to anything. PSG always finishes first in their group and it hasn't mattered, in fact the French giants have probably the worse luck on draws ever, facing teams like Manchester United, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Chelsea multiple times in early rounds of the competition.

I wanted to make this point to help explain my take that Liverpool is the favorite to win it all and it's not that close. The main reason why that isn't the consensus take right now is because they won it last year and the whole focusing on the Premier League argument has been overblown and now it's irrelevant as they already won it, virtually.

Imagine if Liverpool hadn't won the Champions League last year and they were having a season like this. Their favoritism wouldn't even be questioned. Right now, Jurgen Klopp's men are the best side in the world. Simple as that.

Getting back to the matchup, Liverpool is clearly the favorite but this is exactly the type of situation where Cholo Simeone thrives in. Whenever you count Atletico Madrid out they manage to find a way. Whenever you turnaround and think now this is their time they usually fold. Think about last season when not many people gave them a shot against Juventus and the rojiblancos shocked us all by beating la vecchia signora 2-0 at home, than you thought here we go this is their time and Cristiano Ronaldo happened again.



What to expect:

Considering that the first game is in Spain, my guess is that Simeone will be very conservative because for Atlético it's more important not to concede than to score, as long as they can keep Liverpool off the board which is a monumental ask they can head to Anfield without the need to score first which would be the case in a hypothetical 1-1 draw in the first leg.

Taking out the Atalantas of the world and looking at the matchups between the household names this to me is the one with the smallest chance of an upset.

As far as starting elevens you won't get any surprises with Liverpool. Joe Gomez has locked himself as Van Dijk's partner, as long as Mané is fit he will play and in the midfield is probably Fabinho, Henderson and Wijnaldum. The key here is that the Reds have one game plan and they'll enforce it.

On the other side to me you'll find out all you need to know about Simeone's strategy and willingness to be agressive by which fullbacks he uses. If he starts the match with Kieran Trippier and Renan Lodi I will be surprised, expect to see a more conservative approach there.

Prediction: Liverpool advances.

Borussia Dortmund x PSG


Introduction:

There has been a lot of talk about how this is the year for PSG with Barcelona struggling and the lack of a clear favorite which in my eyes is not exactly true, but in some ways this season presents the French side with the opportunity to quite simply advance in the competition.

Chelsea struggled for years to get over the hump in Europe's biggest stage, between Terry's slide and the "robbery" at Stamford Bridge it was a longtime before they won it all and that same narrative is now used with PSG, but there is one huge difference. Paris Saint Germain have failed to simply advance in the knockout stage, the only time I remember them going through was when they beat Chelsea way back when. I believe in this new era they advanced to the Quarterfinals only twice and never even reached the semi-final so let's take it one step at a time.

Borussia Dortmund is not exactly an easy opponent but looking at what they dealt with in the past, the people in Paris probably celebrated this draw. The good thing for Dortmund, a side that's been so inconsistent this year is that they are playing with house money, zero pressure and because of their recent collapses it's hard to blindly trust PSG in a matchup that they should if all things equal, win comfortably.


What to expect:

On any given day Borussia Dortmund can play amongst the best but they can just as easily get throttled like it happened recently against Bayern. Thomas Tuchel's side have so much quality is ridiculous, but mentally I don't know how they will react if put in a difficult situation. All of this makes for a very unpredictable duel.

Like I said PSG are so talented individually that if their name was Real Madrid they'd be favorites to win the whole thing. While I have to account for the mental side of the duel, there's only so much stock I can put into it. Overall I believe we'll have a couple of very interesting games and while PSG has the edge I wouldn't be nearly as surprised to see Dortmund going through as I would if Atlético Madrid beats Liverpool.

It looks like Neymar will play and unless he has to be carried off the field I don't see him missing another knockout stage match. I personally like Cavani more than Icardi but Tuchel seems to be rolling with the Argentine and in terms of strategy I expect both teams trying to be agressive. Paris Saint Germain will obviously dominate the ball because of their superiority but I doubt Dortmund will sit back too much and I expect seeing both teams creating chances.

Who advances: PSG (0 confidence in this prediction)



As always feel free to comment, let me know what you are thinking. Subscribe to the blog up top and you'll receive daily notifications as soon as every post comes out.

Stay tuned.We'll also be previewing Wednesday's matches on Tuesday and we'll review everything by Thursday.

See you later